Mozhgan Moallemi; Mohammad Reza Ghasemi; Hedayat Karimzadeh
Abstract
Government size and its effects on an economy is one of the important issues in
economic researches. Recently, many attempts have been made to determine the
optimal size of government and its effects on economic growth in most countries,
spatially in the developing countries. Since, economic growth ...
Read More
Government size and its effects on an economy is one of the important issues in
economic researches. Recently, many attempts have been made to determine the
optimal size of government and its effects on economic growth in most countries,
spatially in the developing countries. Since, economic growth is just one of the
dimensions of development, it is not sufficient the investigation of economic growth
index in order to determine the optimal size of government. So the index of
economic well-being (IEWB) is needed to express the state of social welfare.
In this paper, consistent to Osberg and Sharp (1998), the index of economic well being (CIEWB1) will be calculated for period of 1978-2007. Then we investigate the
relationship between the size of government and economic well- being based on
Armey nonlinear model in order to determine the optimal size of government.
Moreover, the paper, analyzes the long- term relationship between them by using an
auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) as well as long- term Dynamics by
vector auto-regressive process.
The Estimation results reveal a nonlinear relationship between government size and
economic welfare for Iran. The results imply that the optimal size of government is
20.8% and 5.9% based on the ratio of consumption and investment expenditure,
respectively. Also, there is no a long- term relationship between government size
(based on two indexes) and index of economic well-being. Moreover, the results
show that the effects of fluctuations of government size on economic welfare are not
permanent.
Saed Samadi; Mohammad Vaez; Mohammad Reza Ghasemi
Abstract
Due to the high costs of collecting the quarterize or seasonal statistical information and the need of econometricians for Modeleny and short analysis, the National Statistical Institutes decided to obtain quarterize time series as indirect methods of the short-term dynamics of the annual data.
In ...
Read More
Due to the high costs of collecting the quarterize or seasonal statistical information and the need of econometricians for Modeleny and short analysis, the National Statistical Institutes decided to obtain quarterize time series as indirect methods of the short-term dynamics of the annual data.
In this article, two alternative approaches based on related indicators and pure mathematics has been introduced and then after temporal disaggregation of government oil revenues, consumer price index and liquidity, the approaches compared to each other.
The empirical results indicated that Boot, Feibes and Lisman methods deliverd the better results for two series (government oil revenues and consumer price index), whereas Chow and Lin approach is more approprate for liquidity, based on MSE and r2 criteria.
Also this paper shows that the best choice approach for temporal disaggregation of economic time series is not always possible.
